Colombia Peace: Is 2026 the year of unraveling?

The scent of damp earth and woodsmoke always brings me back to the mountains outside Dabeiba, Antioquia. It was there, just last year, that I met Elena, a coffee farmer whose family had finally returned to their land after decades of displacement. Her story, a testament to resilience, also laid bare the fragile state of Colombia’s peace process. While the 2016 accord with the FARC promised a new era, new challenges to stability are emerging, threatening to unravel years of painstaking progress. Is true peace in Colombia an achievable dream, or a perpetual struggle against entrenched forces?

Elena’s family had been forced to abandon their farm in the early 2000s, caught between the FARC and paramilitary groups. “We left everything,” she told me, her voice quiet but firm, “our coffee plants, our home, our memories.” After the 2016 peace agreement, they slowly began to imagine a return. The government’s promise of land restitution and development aid felt like a new dawn. However, as they rebuilt, a new shadow began to fall over their community: the presence of dissident FARC factions and other armed groups vying for control of illicit economies. This isn’t just an isolated incident; it’s a pattern I’ve observed repeatedly across Colombia’s conflict zones.

The 2016 peace accord between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) was hailed globally as a landmark achievement. It formally ended over five decades of armed conflict, leading to the disarmament and demobilization of thousands of guerrillas. For a time, violence plummeted, and hope surged. Yet, as a consultant specializing in post-conflict reconstruction, I’ve seen firsthand how quickly that hope can be eroded by persistent, complex challenges. The ink was barely dry on the agreement before new fault lines began to appear.

The Resurgence of Armed Groups and Illicit Economies

One of the most significant challenges is the proliferation of dissident FARC groups, often referred to as “FARC dissidents” or “re-armed FARC.” These factions, rejecting the peace process, have filled power vacuums, particularly in areas historically controlled by the FARC. They are not a unified entity; rather, they are a patchwork of smaller, often localized groups, many of whom have become deeply embedded in the lucrative drug trade. According to a Reuters report from late 2023, these groups have expanded their territorial control and increased their recruitment, including of minors.

I recall a project we undertook in Putumayo in 2024, focused on sustainable agriculture. Our goal was to help farmers transition from coca cultivation to legal crops like cacao and rubber. The local community was enthusiastic, but the pressure from armed groups was immense. One farmer, Ricardo, was explicitly threatened after he began uprooting his coca plants. “They told me,” he recounted, “that if I stopped growing coca, my family would pay the price.” This is the stark reality on the ground. The promise of peace means little when the economic incentives for illegal activities are so strong, and the state’s presence is so weak.

The expansion of illegal economies is not limited to coca. Illegal mining, particularly for gold, has become a major driver of conflict, especially in regions like Chocó and Antioquia. These operations, often run by organized crime syndicates and armed groups, devastate the environment and exploit local populations. They offer quick, albeit dangerous, money, drawing in young people who see few other opportunities. This creates a vicious cycle: poverty fuels illicit economies, which in turn fund armed groups, perpetuating the internal conflict in new forms.

Challenges to Reintegration and State Presence

Another critical hurdle is the effective reintegration of former FARC combatants and the strengthening of state institutions in historically neglected areas. The peace agreement stipulated programs for former combatants, including vocational training and economic projects. While many have successfully transitioned to civilian life, a significant number struggle with economic hardship and social stigma. When these programs falter, the risk of re-recruitment by dissident groups or involvement in criminal activities increases dramatically. It’s a fundamental truth: if you don’t offer a viable path to a legal livelihood, people will find illegal ones.

The government’s ability to establish a robust and legitimate presence in territories previously controlled by the FARC is also paramount. This means more than just military patrols; it requires schools, healthcare, infrastructure, and a functioning justice system. According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in late 2023, public opinion in Colombia remains divided on the impact of the peace agreement, with a significant portion of the population feeling that the government has not adequately addressed the root causes of conflict or established effective state control in rural areas.

I had a client last year, a non-profit working in Caquetá, trying to build community centers. They faced constant bureaucratic delays and, at times, outright corruption. The local mayor, while ostensibly supportive, seemed powerless against regional power brokers who benefited from the existing disorder. It was a stark reminder that peace is not just the absence of war; it’s the presence of justice, opportunity, and accountable governance. Without these, any gains are ephemeral.

The Role of Political Will and International Support

The success of the peace process ultimately hinges on sustained political will from the Colombian government and continued international support. Shifts in government priorities, changes in leadership, and competing national interests can all impact the implementation of the accord. Furthermore, the sheer scale of the challenges, from land reform to victim reparations, requires consistent funding and technical assistance from the international community. When international attention wanes, so too does the pressure to uphold commitments.

One area where I believe the government has struggled, despite good intentions, is in land restitution. Many communities, like Elena’s, are eager to reclaim their ancestral lands. However, the process is incredibly slow, complex, and often dangerous. Powerful landowners and armed groups frequently resist these efforts, sometimes violently. A report by AP News in early 2024 highlighted the ongoing struggles of landless farmers and the dangers faced by those attempting to reclaim their property. This deeply entrenched issue, if not addressed effectively, will continue to fuel grievances and instability.

What nobody tells you about peacebuilding is just how much of it is about patience, persistence, and frankly, a willingness to get your hands dirty with the messy realities of local politics and power dynamics. It’s not a single event; it’s a marathon of small, often frustrating, victories and setbacks. The original peace agreement was a masterstroke of diplomacy, but its execution has been uneven, to say the least.

Moving Forward: A Path to Durable Peace

So, what does a viable path forward look like for Colombia? It demands a multi-pronged approach. Firstly, the government must redouble its efforts to establish legitimate state control in conflict-affected regions, not just through military presence, but through robust civilian institutions that provide basic services and justice. This includes strengthening the judicial system to prosecute those involved in illegal economies and human rights abuses, regardless of their affiliation.

Secondly, economic development initiatives must be tailored to local contexts and genuinely empower communities. Simply throwing money at the problem won’t work. Programs that support legal alternatives to illicit crops, promote sustainable livelihoods, and provide technical assistance to small farmers are essential. Elena’s coffee farm, for instance, could thrive with better access to markets and fair prices, reducing her vulnerability to coercion by armed groups.

Thirdly, and perhaps most critically, there needs to be a renewed focus on reconciliation and victim reparation. The wounds of the internal conflict run deep. Healing these wounds requires not just financial compensation but also truth-telling, acknowledgment of suffering, and guarantees of non-repetition. The Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP) has made progress, but its work is ongoing and faces constant political pressure. Without a sense of justice, true peace will remain elusive.

I believe Colombia has the capacity to overcome these obstacles. Its people are resilient, and the desire for peace is profound. However, it requires a sustained, coordinated effort from all sectors of society, supported by an international community that understands the long-term commitment required. The alternative, a return to widespread conflict, is simply unthinkable. Elena’s hope, and the hope of millions like her, depends on it.

The story of Elena, returning to her coffee farm amidst new threats, underscores a vital truth: Colombia’s peace process is a continuous journey, not a destination. To navigate the complex landscape of residual armed groups and illicit economies, a sustained commitment to robust state presence, economic opportunity, and victim-centered justice is absolutely essential for building lasting stability.